Thursday Morning Update

LOTS to go over...

First off Friday morning model data is still showing enough moisture being pulled up north to cause a few areas of light rain and possibly winter mix in the a.m. while temps are cold enough to support winter precip. I believe this is going to be limited in quantity and locations.

Now moving on to the main show. Christmas Day!

A low pressure system coming out of the Rockies will develop a cold front that will kick off severe weather for the area and a large scale blizzard in north central states.

Noon Christmas Day - Storm development begins to kick off areas along I35 in KS and OK.

3PM Christmas Day - Supercell development continues and marches east toward the area. Between 3 - 5 development should begin to work into a complex. Which will increase wind damage and reduce tornadogensis.

6PM Christmas Day - Between 5 - 9 PM The line of strong to severe storms will work into the

area. All modes will be possible.

9PM Christmas Day - Line is east of the area on its way toward Springfield.

Both CI and Helicity are pushing the tornado factor. Something to monitor.

SPC Day 4 Risk - I really think this is going to be modified over the following two days. I believe the risk area is going to be much larger and possibly a critical area needs to be drawn in for areas between Tulsa to Salina to Columbia to Harrison and back to Tulsa.

Thats all I have for today, unless I get some time and large scale changes comes about.

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