The always changing weather...
Woke up this morning to big changes in Christmas days forecast. There is a chance of another post before lunch and then later tonight on this.
Lets begin with MSLP. Starting at Noon tomorrow in the below graphic. Two areas of development one around Arkansas City moving north toward Lincoln. This will be the main severe weather event of the system. The second is going to be OKC to Dallas area. The second is going to be much lower of a risk since the elements are not all there.
Now we fast forward to 6PM. The main event is KC and north. The second area is pushing into the local area. Realistic time frame is 5 - 9PM. All modes of severe weather remain possible. Here is why!
Wind shear for noon time frame is more north bound. This helps on the large tornado factor as well as generating pressure winds which can shoot up through storms causing large hail and somewhat long lived events.
By the time we reach 6PM. The Wind shift is more easterly. This lowers the big tornado factor but increases hail events. Not hail size. When the winds are working NE or E. More storms have the potential for hail, as a result hail size drops from 3 - 4" to 1 - 3". This also increases Spin Ups inside certain cells so an Isolated EF0 - EF1 is possible. Of course the closer you get to the Low (Nebraska) the better chance of this. Sine we are on the far south end drafting will be limited. Yes the tornado factor remains but no where near the level up north has.
Tornado Estimates (Jeffs Prediction)
(Based on Joplin being the center point working 60 mile 360° radius out.)
Tornado Risk 70%
EF0 - EF1 Moderate
EF2 - EF3 Low
EF4 - EF5 None