This will be the only blog today. I figured I would go this direction as I can cover more content than a FB post.
SPC has went ahead and upgraded and made some large scale changes to the forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see this revised one last time mid to late morning before the event gets going.
An area that I have been focused on (our local area) has now been included in the tornado risk for today. The threat is not high but enough to be concerned. The reason of my concern is not with the main line of storms which is going to be broken. But additional development behind. The Low Pressure itself will track real close to the area. This will assist any developing storm to spin. This will lead to rapid tornado warnings but brief tornadoes as the storms will not have enough power to sustain long lived cyclones.
Moving from tornadoes to hail and wind. This will be our primary concern of the day. 60 - 70 MPH winds will be the norm in the severe storms with hail cores probably reaching 2 inches in spots.
So the bigger question is, when?
I believe the first wave will move into the area mid to late morning. This will be heavy showers. As the line starts to slow down we will see a back building trend which will cause strong to severe storms to evolve. This will take place in the early afternoon period. Once those storms tower high enough it will tap into the jet stream and carry the storms to our east faster. Then comes the Low Pressure. This will spawn supercell popups that will rotate around the Low itself. this is where our tornado threat comes from. This will take place from 3P - 7P possibly pushing it to 9P.
Then light to heavy showers on the west side of the low as it moves through for the remainder of the night.
NOTE that the below graphics are just estimated radar returns from the WRF Forecast Model.
10AM Simulated Radar
1PM Simulated Radar
3PM Simulated Radar
5PM Simulated Radar
7PM Simulated Radar
9PM Simulated Radar
11PM Simulated Radar