• Jeffery Smith

Fall Forecast


Temperatures to bounce up and down in Midwest, northern Plains. Temperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with cooler air. This year, however, forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow, arriving as soon as October. Now, this fall may not be off that far from normal, but keep in mind it’s been very difficult to get cold weather in these places over the last several [fall seasons]. A few bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November.

Conditions to be ripe for tornado outbreaks across the southern Plains. Severe weather will threaten the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as temperatures run above normal in the Gulf. If you get any of these mid- to late-season storms coming down in the northern Plains like we’re expecting, you’re going to get a clash of air masses [in the southern Plains]. This clash could cause severe weather to erupt, with the threat for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee. Showers and thunderstorms may also lead to episodes of flooding in the lower valley of Texas.


Monthly Snow Percentages

October 1st - 15th <20%

October 15th - 31st <60%

November 1st - 15th <70%

November 15th - 30th <40%


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