• Jeffery Smith

Spring Forecast


General- Using past analog years, a near to slightly above-normal severe weather season is expected; sharp contrast in temperatures in April can spark increased activity during this month (moderate confidence).



March

Midwest - Could be some ugly periods with some rain, cool conditions and even mixed snow events; soil temperatures struggling to rebound, snow still falling and delayed on outdoor product demand possible (moderate to high confidence).

S. Plains - Warm periods out-duel cool periods in this region, but less chance in central Plains; warm and dryness more established in the western Plains (low to moderate confidence).


April

Midwest - Still can be chilly at times during the month, southern warmups possible leading to some severe thunderstorm events, a wet month possible; soil temperatures slowly rebounding in the north (low to moderate confidence).

S. Plains - Temperature contrast from this region compared to the north can lead to several severe thunderstorm events, mainly eastern Plains and mid- to lower Mississippi Valley; looks too dry farther west lowering risk of severe weather (moderate confidence).

No Graphic

May

Midwest - Nearly stalled pattern with longer periods of cool over the Midwest, wetness across mid- and lower Mississippi Valleys, possibly caused by rounds of severe weather; drier western Plains with drought intensifying (moderate confidence).

S. Plains - A few severe weather events, drier western 12 and 5, but normal severe weather activity farther east; looks warm to hot (moderate confidence).

No Graphic

LRO - Paul Pastelok - AccuWeather Pro


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