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AFD 01/16/2024 2:30 PM

Updated: Jan 17

Current conditions and synoptic overview: Temperatures have warmed into the 7 to 13 degree range early this afternoon after early morning temperatures that were below zero. Arctic high pressure was centered over the southern plains with a west wind across the area north of the high. Water vapor imagery was showing the upper level

trough axis shifting east over the area. Tonight: The surface ridge will shift east into the lower Mississippi valley tonight and winds will begin to back to more of a southerly direction. Some height rises are expected aloft as the upper trough shifts east of the area. Lows will be cold again tonight, but not as cold as the past few nights with lows

in the single digits above zero.

Wednesday: A more zonal pattern will set up aloft with southerly winds on the back of the surface high and ahead of low pressure in the high plains. With some low level warm advection we should see temperatures climbing above freezing into the mid 30s to around 40. This is still below normal(mid 40s) for this time of year.

Wednesday night into Thursday: Shortwave energy will move out of the plains and into the area Wednesday night into Thursday and may bring some light snow to central Missouri on Thursday. Little or no accumulation is expected. Lows Wednesday night

should be in the upper teens to low 20s. Highs on Thursday will be similar to Wednesdays highs.

Thursday night into Friday: A stronger upper level wave will

begin to move into the area late Thursday through Friday, again with light snow chances mainly over central Missouri on Thursday night of up to a half inch accumulation. This system will bring another strong cold front through the area and will drop temperatures back into the single digits to teens on Thursday night with highs on Friday in the teens to low 20s. May eventually need a wind chill advisory for Friday into Friday night as we get some areas below -10 once again.

Saturday - Sunday: The cold air mass will be overhead on Saturday morning before shiftingn to the east late in the day and into Sunday. Cold temperatures in the teens to low 20s are once again expected on Saturday, but as the high pressure system shifts to the east, we should start to see some warming as we get a return to southerly flow behind the high. Highs on Sunday should reach the mid to upper 30s.

Sunday night - Tuesday: Upper level flow will start becoming more southwesterly with a trough developing to our west and low level warm advection will strengthen over the area. This will bring in some moisture and warmer temperatures. Some shortwave energy with the warm air advection will begin to produce some precipitation as early as Sunday night and continuing on Monday. Initially, this may begin as freezing rain. LREF sounding data and probabilities(30-80%) support this with a warm nose above freezing aloft and sub freezing surface temperatures as the precipitation begins. By midday, surface temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation should become all rain. Rain chances will continue through Tuesday with this first wave, but with the main low still to the southwest, additional rain chances will likely occur outside of this forecast period.

Source NWS Springfield

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