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AFD 01/22/2024 11:30 AM

Today: As we head through the morning commute, warm air will increase aloft as southerly winds continue. Temperatures will likely remain fairly steady through the commute with most areas below freezing. Coldest temps are expected east of Springfield in the higher terrain. Bands of precip will continue to move from southwest to northeast through the area. Average rates of 0.01-0.03in are likely. Therefore continued ice accretion will occur on most surfaces, including untreated road surfaces. Temperatures look to slowly warm above freezing from west to east from 9am to noon however areas east of Springfield will likely take until the mid afternoon, especially the higher terrain along highway 60 southeast of Springfield. Total Ice Accumulations: 00Z and 06Z model runs, specifically CAMs and the associated HREF, have upped the freezing rain accumulations across the area and brought higher amounts further

northwest; however, the bullseye remains over the eastern Ozarks, in the region south of Hwy 60 & east of Hwy 65. 24hr mean FRAM accumulations now indicate a pocket of accumulations between 0.25-0.3" in this area, and most models are also in agreement that the freezing rain will linger longer into the afternoon. Impacts: We are already seeing hazardous travel conditions and this is expected to only get worse as more traffic gets on the road during the morning rush. Conditions should improve as we

head later through the day as temps rise above freezing and solar insolation works on road surfaces. However given the cold ground, even temps above freezing may still allow for ice accretion. Areas southeast of Springfield along and just south of the Highway 60 corridor will see higher ice amounts along with wind gusts up to 25mph. This may cause isolated power outages along with minor tree damage in that small area.

Advisories and Warnings: Winter Weather Advisory were left alone. Warning and Advisory expiration times may need to be adjusted later today depending on how quickly locations climb above freezing.

Tonight: Another shortwave will move north from Oklahoma causing another widespread round of precip. This will likely be all rain given slowly warming temps in the middle to upper 30s. Data generally supports between 0.25-0.75in of rainfall with the evening round of rain. Cloud ice decreases after midnight and may change things over to drizzle.

Tuesday: Morning drizzle/rain will end pretty quickly and clouds will last through the day. Late in the day a shortwave will move into Oklahoma and force another round of precip to develop and slide north into the area, generally in the afternoon and evening. Warming low levels will contribute to temps reaching the 40s.

Source: NWS Springfield

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