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AFD 01/26/2024

Current conditions and synoptic overview: While the visibilities have improved with the fog today, the low ceilings continue over the area. Water vapor imagery shows the next system has pushed into west Texas with southwest flow out ahead of the low into the forecast area. Regional radar shows showers associated with this system still to the southwest down in Oklahoma and Texas. The clouds and fog over the past few days have kept the diurnal temperature range fairly small and we continue with upper 30s to

mid 40s across the area. Lack of sunshine, despite being above freezing has kept our frost depth(noon reading) at 4 inches.

Rain chances tonight - Saturday: Still some model differences in strength of the upper low, but overall solutions maintain the trend of keeping the higher rain amounts to our south with the northern edge of the precipitation bisecting our area. Some of our northern counties may not see much in the way of rainfall. The stronger Euro Model also wraps some colder air into the area around the 850 low as opposed to the Canadian and GFS solutions. This is also evident with their enemble solutions as well. We are going with all rain at this time, with the ECMWF and ENS the only deterministic and ensemble solutions that would bring any cold enough temperatures aloft for a possible snow mix. That being said, chances are not exactly zero for a rain/snow mix and wouldn`t be surprised to see some reports Saturday morning of a rain snow mix(10-20% chance). No accumulations or impacts expected with any wintry type precipitation. Fog potential tonight .

Saturday: The potential for dense fog may not be quite over yet. NBM probs suggest some dense fog potential along the Ozarks plateau region tonight into Saturday morning. Will not be issuing any advisories for this yet and am expecting this to be more localized than what we have had the past few nights.

Saturday Night: Most of the precipitation should push east of the area by Saturday evening with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s(west) to the mid 30s(east).

Source: NWS Springfield

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