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AFD 01/27/2024 1:30 PM

Current Conditions: Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows an upper level low moving through northern Arkansas with a surface low across Tennessee. A large

upper level ridge could be seen developing across the western US and this will be moving in this week. In the mean time, a large area of precip moved into the area this morning and has continued early this afternoon for locations south of I-44 and east of Highway 65 on the backside of the surface low. Residence time for the rainfall has been the longest across south central Missouri from Branson to Ava to West Plains where a widespread 0.50 to just over 1.00 inches of rain have fallen. While widespread flooding is not expected, local flood monitoring and tools and the National Water Model forecasts suggest that a few low water crossings could go under in these areas this

afternoon and we will continue to monitor the situation. The latest frost depth is 3 inches therefore the ground can not quite soak in all this rainfall yet. Temperatures have been slow to rise today with most areas in the middle to upper 30s under

northerly winds.

This afternoon through tonight: Precip will slowly end this afternoon and evening as upper level support moves off to the east. Given the already high humidity and wet ground, fog is looking likely again tonight. A look at high res ensembles shows about a 40-60 percent chance of dense fog tonight, with the highest chances along and west of Highway 65. If these probs increase then a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed. Northerly

winds will advect in some colder temps overnight. High res models currently suggest a 80-90 percent chance of temps below 32 degrees by sunrise Sunday. Therefore we will need to closely monitor for freezing fog to develop which could pose slick spots and bridges and overpasses.

Sunday: Fog will slowly erode during the morning as ridging develops aloft. Temps will be the warmest west of Springfield where readings will reach the middle to upper 40s. Areas east of Springfield will likely hold onto the clouds a little longer, holding temps back to the lower 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Dry Weather through Thursday: Ensembles are in strong agreement that the upper level ridge will slowly build east this week. A

dry frontal passage will occur Monday night as energy slides through Illinois and areas to the east. Temps will be on the increase this week with highs in the 50s as early as Monday however a brief drop in highs will occur on Tuesday as we receive a glancing blow of colder air aloft. The center of the upper level ridge will build in Wednesday and Thursday. Local climatology suggests that the median surface high temp in these cases with clear to partly cloudy skies is in the upper 50s. Friday into the weekend: Ensemble variance begins to increase By Friday as upper level energy moves into the western US and will attempt to undercut the ridge. This is looking more like a blocking pattern which can be tough for models to get a good handle on in long ranges. Ensembles do show precip chances in all four clusters by Saturday and precip chances have increased

to 40-50 percent during this time. Given the lack of colder air, temps will likely remain above average.

Source: NWS Springfield

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