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AFD 01/29/2024 2:30 PM

This afternoon through tonight: Given that high temps are currently close to the NBM90th percentile, they will likely come close to 60 degrees for final high temps as skies remain sunny. As energy dives south into Minnesota tonight, a cold front will be on the move into Iowa and northern Missouri. Light winds will keep the atmosphere mixed with low temps only falling into the middle to upper 30s. Tuesday: The cold front will be moving south through the area during the morning hours. Model data suggests a layer of clouds will accompany the front however given the dry air aloft, no precip is expected. These clouds look to linger a little longer into the day then it looked like earlier. Given the northerly upslope flow across the plateau, we have nudged the sky cover up closer to the 90th percentile of guidance. While the core of the upper low slides through western Illinois during the afternoon, low level cold air advection will occur and we have lowered temps closer to the 25th percentile of guidance,

especially given the cloud cover. Most areas should still reach the middle to upper 40s. Warmest temps are expected to the west and south of Springfield.

Forecast soundings suggest that given the lack of moisture aloft we will not have any cloud ice. However it does show some weak omega along with increasing moisture below 1km during the afternoon and evening across the Rolla-Salem areas. Therefore NWS have added some low (10-15%) precip chances for these areas. Given the cloud ice it would likely be light drizzle with little if any accumulation.

Source: NWS Springfield

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