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AFD 01/31/2024 10:00 PM

Tonight should bring mild conditions, with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Model guidance suggests that skies should remain mostly clear through the majority of the night, with cloud cover beginning to increase by Thursday morning ahead of the next system. Thursday is progged to be the warmest day of the forecast period, as warm air continues to advect into the region. Widespread afternoon highs in the 60s.

An upper level trough will begin to push onto the western CONUS Thursday night. In combination with an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS, this will create a blocking pattern, sandwiching in the upper level ridge currently over the central

CONUS. Historically, this type of pattern has been difficult to break, however as we progress towards the weekend, models continue to suggest shortwave energy undercutting the ridge and ejecting southeast of the area, bringing increased rain chances back to the area Saturday into Saturday night (40-70%), and persisting through Sunday (30-60%). Looking at individual ensemble member low locations, recent runs have led to a more southern track, which would ultimately lead to lower rainfall amounts for our area. There does, however, continue to be large variances, as models are still struggling to handle this system. Regardless, mean PWAT values from individual ensemble members continue to range between 0.8-0.9 inches, which is climatologically well above the 90th percentile (0.73 inches), and approaching the daily maximum (1.02 inches). The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight southwest MO and

southeast KS in a Marginal risk in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Make sure to stay up to date with the forecast as we get closer to this timeframe and confidence begins to increase. Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center is highlighting a strong signal (70-80%) for above normal temperatures, with precipitation leaning (40-50%) above normal during the beginning half of February.

Source: NWS Springfield

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