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Discussion 11/16/2023 7:00 AM

Sprinkles/light rain chances tonight into Friday morning. The edge of an upper-level trough will sweep the aforementioned cold front through the area Friday morning. Ahead of the front, there is a slight chance for sprinkles and perhaps a few areas of light rain, especially towards central MO. The front will clear after sunrise, so low temperatures will still be mild in the 49-52 range.

The cold front and associated pressure gradient will bring dry air and breezy northerly winds to the area once again. During peak heating Friday, the front will be situated across our area making highs near 65. After the front clears, expect highs to hover around 60 for the weekend with minimum temperatures in the lower 30s Friday night and around 40 Saturday/Sunday night.

Despite the cooler temperatures, dry air and breezy winds will promote an elevated fire weather risk through early afternoon Sunday. There is not a day where the two ingredients work well together, limiting the overall impact, but the upper threshold of

each will still promote the risk for fire starts. Sunday, an elevated fire weather risk will exist where winds will pick up again into the 10-15 mph range and RH will be in the 30-40%.

50-70% rain chances later afternoon Sunday into early next week:

A potent upper-level trough will dive towards the region Sunday afternoon, bringing the next big chance for rain. Models are coming into agreement with the first round occurring Sunday afternoon into the night. Models begin to diverge in the intensity and location of the trough as Monday rolls around. The operational GFS and ECMWF give us a couple clues of why this divergence happens. A second burst of shortwave energy

will interact with the initial trough at some point, bringing a second chance of rain Monday through Monday night). The powerful dynamics of the system are likely leading to the model disagreements in timing and intensity. As details get worked out moving forward, a better picture of the second round of precip will come to fruition. Nevertheless, the energetic system will leave the area Tuesday with lingering rain chances on the back side of the low through Tuesday afternoon.

Cooler air will arrive with this system with highs around 50 Monday and Wednesday, and in the mid-40s Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid-30s Monday night and upper 20s Tuesday night.

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