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Discussion 11/21/2023 7:00 AM

Drizzle and fog early this morning:


In the wake of a cold front, reduced visibilities due to

intermittent drizzle and fog are currently ongoing across the CWA.

Current radar and model trends depicting no cloud ice, upslope

flow across the plateau, and saturated low-levels suggest that

the drizzle and fog will last through 8AM or so with the fog

lingering a bit longer than the drizzle. Even when the fog

dissipates, though, low clouds will continue through the day.


Breezy conditions and cold air advection will also occur today as

the cold front continues pushing SE and the pressure gradient

tightens on the backside of the surface low. Sustained NW winds

between 15-20 mph are possible in some locations with gusts up to

25-30 mph.


During the afternoon, a few quick and narrow bands of

rain will move through.


Clouds and cold air advection through the day will keep high

temperatures today in the upper 40s and drop lows tonight into the

upper 20s, especially as skies clear and winds diminish after

midnight.






 

Warming trend up to Thanksgiving:


Quickly after the upper-level trough departs, surface high

pressure will move into the area underneath strong left entrance

jet streak dynamics. Despite being under northwesterly flow, a

pronounced mid and upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will

transport warmer air eastward. Strong northerly WAA is evident in

the 850-mb layer along its ridge axis, bumping up the 850-mb

temperatures in our region to 4-8C by Wednesday afternoon. Thus,

will be slightly warmer Wednesday around 50F. However, with clear

skies and 50F only being near the 25th percentile of climatology

for Springfield with 4-8C 850-mb temps, it would not be surprising

to see highs outperform 50F by a degree or two. Lows will also

slightly increase to the lower 30s Wednesday night.


Southerly surface flow will briefly return Thursday as the low-

level ridge axis shifts east of our region. This will promote a

mild warm-up for Thanksgiving Day with highs in the upper 50s

underneath sunny skies. It`s certainly looking to be nice weather

for Turkey Day.


Cooler once again after Thanksgiving and into the weekend:


The relatively warm air won`t last long, though, as the tail-end

of a cold front is expected to dive through the region sometime

Friday. Current timing has it across our CWA during the day

Friday, so highs could range anywhere between 45 and 55F depending

on if it moves through faster or slower than expected.

Nevertheless, after the frontal passage, the weekend highs look to

be in the mid-40s with lows dropping to the mid-20s by

Sunday/Monday night.


Increasing precipitation chances this weekend:


Precipitation chances through Friday are low (like <10% low). But

PoPs are increasing for a system to move through over the weekend

as models are beginning to agree that a shortwave trough will

move through the area. Current chances are at 30-40% with mostly

rain in the forecast. Snow will not be out of the question, but

would need to see a much colder push in temperatures to have

increasing confidence in that message.


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