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Discussion 11/28/2023 7:30 AM

A 10-14 degree spread in the temperatures is expected this afternoon across the extreme far southeast KS and Missouri Ozarks as warm air advects into the area from the southwest. This will allow temperatures to rise into the low 50s over far southwest

MO/southeast KS, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s almost everywhere else.

For tonight, overnight lows will be slightly warmer than previous nights with the warmer air advecting in. Expect lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with portions of the MO/AR border reaching the upper 30s.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. A low fire concern will begin Wednesday as winds will increase across the region and humidity drops briefly during the afternoon.

Rounds of precipitation Thursday into Friday, with the best chances (90%) occurring late Thursday night as a surface low strengthens just to our south. Recent runs have

tightened up ensemble member locations of the low, bringing in a better consensus of the low tracking into northern Arkansas by Friday. Some uncertainty still exists, though, so will be monitoring this as confidence increases.

Rain Estimates:

>0.5": 50-90% (highest south of I-44)

>1.0": 30-80% (highest towards southeast MO)

>2.0": 20-40% over southeast MO, less than 10% elsewhere.

Looking ahead to next weekend, additional shortwave energy will allow rain chances (20-30%) to linger through the weekend, however some uncertainties regarding the timing and placement still exist.

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