Rain chances are introduced into the forecast this morning mainly south of the I-44 corridor, though this activity will likely be light and scattered in nature before greater lift and saturation take hold. Thus, rain chances are generally less than 50% before
noon, and any forecast accumulations are light (less than 0.10").
Rain looks to become more widespread in the afternoon and through the evening hours as the upper-level wave lifts through northern Texas and Oklahoma, increasing diffluence aloft. Precipitable water values are progged to top out in the 1.00-1.20" range across the CWA, placing them above the 90th percentile of climatology, indicating plenty of available moisture. CAMs continue to suggest 200-500 J/kg of elevated instability may creep into far southern Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid afternoon, so an embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible (20-30% chance), mainly along and south of I-44. Additionally, occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph are likely across south-central Missouri as the surface low moves through.
Model guidance is in good agreement in lifting the bulk of the widespread rain and accumulations out of the area Friday morning. However, additional light showers and/or drizzle may linger through much of the day Friday, particularly along and north of
the I-44 corridor. RAP data show a loss of cloud ice fairly quickly Friday morning coincident with sustained low-level moisture and lift, which would be conducive for drizzle formation. However, it is possible lift is great enough to favor more showery
precipitation instead, though it remains unclear at this point. Any additional accumulation would be very light.
Total forecast rainfall accumulations today through Friday range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the area. HREF localized probability-matched mean suggests localized pockets of 2.00 inches are possible on the high end. Flash flood guidance this time of year is around 3.00 inches, and given the dry antecedent conditions, the flood threat remains very low.
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