Widespread rain was lifting northeast out of the area early this
morning as the upper level low transits the region. Patchy drizzle
will remain possible (15-30% chance) into the middle afternoon
with continued 0-1.5 km moisture, lift, and lack of cloud ice. The
strongest signal appears to be along and north of the I-44
corridor. Temperatures will vary across the forecast area today
with warm air advection across south-central and southeast
Missouri. Forecast highs range from the mid 40s in southeast
Kansas to near 60 degrees in south-central and southeast Missouri.
For tonight, look for low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Some light fog may develop overnight as dew point depressions drop
and winds weaken, but there is currently not much support among
the short term guidance for an impactful drop in visibilities, so
confidence is low.
A longwave trough axis will be centered across the Plains Saturday
afternoon before shifting east throughout the evening and
overnight hours. While much of the weekend looks dry, confidence
in a few light showers or sprinkles occurring Saturday night has
increased slightly as a surface low lifts northeast through
central Missouri. No lightning is expected, and any accumulations
will be minimal. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s across
central Missouri to upper 50s near the MO/AR border.
Medium-range guidance shows increasing agreement in developing a
broad upper-level ridge across the western CONUS Monday, placing
southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas under northwest flow
aloft. This setup will support dry conditions through the work
week. NBM percentile data support seasonable to slightly above
normal temperatures through Wednesday followed by a warming trend
Thursday into next weekend.
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