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Discussion 12/01/2023 8:00 AM

Widespread rain was lifting northeast out of the area early this

morning as the upper level low transits the region. Patchy drizzle

will remain possible (15-30% chance) into the middle afternoon

with continued 0-1.5 km moisture, lift, and lack of cloud ice. The

strongest signal appears to be along and north of the I-44

corridor. Temperatures will vary across the forecast area today

with warm air advection across south-central and southeast

Missouri. Forecast highs range from the mid 40s in southeast

Kansas to near 60 degrees in south-central and southeast Missouri.

For tonight, look for low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Some light fog may develop overnight as dew point depressions drop

and winds weaken, but there is currently not much support among

the short term guidance for an impactful drop in visibilities, so

confidence is low.

A longwave trough axis will be centered across the Plains Saturday

afternoon before shifting east throughout the evening and

overnight hours. While much of the weekend looks dry, confidence

in a few light showers or sprinkles occurring Saturday night has

increased slightly as a surface low lifts northeast through

central Missouri. No lightning is expected, and any accumulations

will be minimal. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s across

central Missouri to upper 50s near the MO/AR border.

Medium-range guidance shows increasing agreement in developing a

broad upper-level ridge across the western CONUS Monday, placing

southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas under northwest flow

aloft. This setup will support dry conditions through the work

week. NBM percentile data support seasonable to slightly above

normal temperatures through Wednesday followed by a warming trend

Thursday into next weekend.

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