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Discussion 12/03/2023 6:30 PM

An active northwest flow pattern continues to support embedded shortwaves moving through the central CONUS. Most of the area remains dry with the passage of a system Monday evening given the lack of quality moisture return. Meanwhile, south- southwest winds become west- northwest tonight, with wind gusts of 20 mph. A cooler airmass

ushers in behind the associated frontal passage for Monday. Lows tonight fall into the lower 30s.


A cooler day on Monday with highs in the middle to lower 50s. This is near climatological normal for early December. Additional shortwave energy dives southeast out of the Plains on Monday night, with low rain chances likely remaining east of the local area. This is a result of a building ridge across the western CONUS through will support a warming trend and drier weather mid to late week.


Temperatures remain near normal into Tuesday with highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, a building ridge to the west will begin to translate eastward. This supports a warming trend as low level warm advection increases through mid-week.


Wednesday-Friday: Guidance depicts a high confidence setup for warmer temperatures mid to late week. As south-southwest winds increase, highs climb into the middle to upper 50s on Wednesday afternoon. The trend continues Thursday and Friday, with

highs soaring into the lower to middle 60s areawide. This is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Dry weather is expected during this timeframe.


By next weekend, a more zonal pattern begins to take shape across the region. Ensemble guidance highlights a developing trough across the west by Friday, supporting the return of rain chances (30-50%) across the area by Saturday and Sunday. Behind the system, temperatures trend back towards normal.








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