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Discussion 12/04/2023 6:30 PM

A clipper moving through the Kansas will drag another front through the forecast area overnight. Models differ on how far south this wave will generate mid level convection

though enough confidence exists to confine the potential to central MO from late this evening into the very early morning. Chances less than 30%.

As this clipper moves east Tuesday an upper ridge will build northward across the Rockies leaving the forecast area in amplified northwest flow resulting in a cooler day despite plenty of sunshine. Surface winds will become gusty (under 30 mph) during the afternoon as the gradient increases between an approaching surface high and the departing clipper generated front.

Warmer weather expected on Thursday into Friday as winds shift back to the south of the backside of the surface high that moves off into the deep south. The pressure gradient will again increase Thursday raising a fire weather concern though slowly rising dew points brought in by south winds will somewhat mitigate the threat,

Attention then turns to the potential for convection on Friday as northern and southern streams interact. A cold front will be driven southward toward the forecast area ahead of a southern stream wave moving through the southern Plains. The southern

system will lead to a surface low moving up the front toward the forecast area which will increase low level helicity as southerly winds increase. This will place the potential for lightning well into the forecast area with instability needing to be monitored for the

potential of organized storms. After the front moves through rain is expected to continue into the weekend as the southern stream upper trough continues moving eastward. Models generally support widespread precipitation with this post frontal activity with the mean 12-hourly QPF between a tenth and a quarter inch including the potential for some wet snow.

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