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Discussion 12/05/2023 4:30 PM

Conditions have been breezy this afternoon with a northwest wind near 15 to 20 mph gusting to near 25 to 30 mph. Surface high pressure will build from the Plains into the Ozarks tonight. Surface winds will weaken after sunset with a relaxing pressure gradient. With clear skies and lighter winds overnight lows will fall to the mid and upper 20s.

The surface high on Wednesday shifts to the east of the Ozarks with the return of a south wind and a warming trend. Model guidance clustering high temperatures 50 to 55 across the area.

Focus of the longer term forecast is on windy conditions Thursday followed by chances for precipitation Friday night through early Sunday morning.

An upper level ridge will build east of the Ozarks with a digging trough in the Rockies. In response to height falls aloft, a strong southwesterly 850 mb low level jet will develop across the southern Plains and southwest Missouri Wednesday night and Thursday. West of Highway 65 corridor favored for max surface wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for a portion of this area Thursday.

The upper trough kicks into the Plains Friday with showers and embedded thunderstorms developing in the Ozarks Friday night and Saturday aided by diffluent flow aloft, a cold front and surface low. Recent model runs have shown a trend of increasing instability over southeast Kansas and the Ozarks Friday night through early Saturday morning supporting the mention of embedded thunderstorms. At this time, the risk for severe thunderstorms is greater in the southern Ozarks and the Arkansas Coastal Plain. Model trends will continue to be monitored closely and the forecast adjusted accordingly as needed. Precipitable water values look to range from 0.75-1 inch. Widespread rain is likely.

Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning the upper trough swings east into the Mississippi Valley. Cold air advection may be sufficient for light snow to mix with the rain or a brief change over for light snow. However, ground temperatures will be warm enough and the timeframe for any change over is limited to a few hours so no accumulation will occur.

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