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Discussion 12/11/2023 9:00 AM

Upper level northwesterly flow will begin to become zonal today and will continue through the coming week. Surface winds will slowly shift from westerly to southerly. However, surface high pressure southeast of the region will only slowly begin to

increase low level moisture. With a dry airmass over the area, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially with fine fuels.

Afternoon highs today will climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. The dry air mass will bring afternoon relative humidity values in the 25 to 35% range, though light winds should limit fire weather concerns. With southerly winds, temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer in the 30s.

The zonal pattern will have established itself and will remain into mid to late week with daily highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. This is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal heading into mid-December. Dry conditions will persist through the much of the week ahead.

Upper level shortwave ridging will move across the area Thursday with an upper low digging into Texas. The track of the upper low will be tied to where precipitation chance develop for Friday into the weekend. As of the latest model runs, the track continued to

be south of the Ozarks. This trend has been persistent, keeping the upper level low south of the area, and thus a drier outlook.

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