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Discussion 12/13/2023 10:30 PM

Tonight and Thursday, we should start to see a decrease in the mid and upper level cloud cover tonight with mostly sunny conditions on Thursday. Lows tonight are expected in the low to mid 30s with highs from the mid 50s to around 60. The upper

level low will begin to drift eastward into New Mexico by the end of the day Thursday with precipitation chances moving in.

The southern stream trough will push into the plains on Thursday night with the moisture axis remaining to our west. Models are still in overall agreement up to this point with the upper level features. Heading into Friday, a northern stream shortwave will begin to dive southeast into the Dakotas as the southern stream wave shifts into the eastern plains just to the west the area. Moisture should increase during the day ahead of this system, with some light rain possibly moving into the the local area by late in the day Friday.

Model variance starts creeping in as the northern stream wave begins to phase in with the southern stream wave late Friday night into Saturday over the area. While there is better agreement than we have seen over the past 2 days, there is still enough variance to keep chances below 50 percent at this time. The best rain chances over the area will be Friday night into Saturday as the upper wave pushes through, with probabilistic

rainfall amounts generally suggesting less than a quarter of an inch of rain for the period.

Upper ridging is then expected to build into the area over the first half of next week with low level warm advection developing over the area. We are expecting the warmer than normal temperatures continue through the remainder of the 7 day outlook, with a strong signal for that to continue into the 8 to 14 day period which extends to the 26th of December.

Chances for a white Christmas in our area look pretty slim.

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