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Discussion 12/18/2023 6:00 PM

The area of high pressure will move over the Ozarks tonight allowing winds to drop off and radiational cooling to maximize. As a result, temperatures are forecast to fall into the middle teens to middle 20s with wind chills in the lower teens to near 20 degrees.

Gusty winds will return and become southerly on Tuesday as high pressure moves east of the region. Dry air will remain in place with relative humidity values in the 20 to low 30 percent range by Tuesday afternoon. This will again produce potential elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures will begin to warm thanks to the southerly winds.

Wednesday will again be breezy as the surface high and upper level ridge remain east of the region. With surface winds remaining southerly, moisture from the western Gulf will begin to filter into the area through Wednesday. Cloud cover will also increase behind the departing high with warm air advection pushing afternoon temperatures into the middle to upper 50s.

Southerly flow through Thursday morning have allowed ample moisture to makes its way into the region and bring the potential for rain by Late Thursday afternoon.

Models still move a surface trough through the area which provides the lift for widespread rain to begin Thursday. Several upper level short waves will slide up the western side of the upper ridge and move across the area before a deeper trough and

upper level eject out of the southwest and begin to lift to the northeast across the plains by the end of the coming weekend into early next week.

This pattern will keep the potential for rain in the forecast across the area through the weekend and through Christmas Day. The overall upper level pattern then looks dominated by an upper level low across the region through most of next week, which may bring a cooler and more moist period to the region.


Christmas Day

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