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Outlook 02/18/24

Monday: The quick flow aloft will bring in that shortwave energy from out west, but with the lower atmosphere remaining fairly dry, we are not expecting any precipitation with this feature. Mainly expecting some high cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. There will still be some spotty areas of elevated fire weather on Monday afternoon with humidity levels dropping back into the 20s and 30s.

Monday night: Shortwave energy will continue to shift east through the forecast area. A few of the models are spitting out some light rain, but the lower levels look just too dry for any measurable precipitation. Wouldn`t completely rule out a few sprinkles but am leaving dry for now. Lows will be slightly warmer than Sunday night with low to mid 30s for most locations.

Tuesday and Wednesday: The upper level shortwave will shift east of the area with a higher amplitude ridge axis building into the region from the west. This, combined with low level warm advection should help temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s on

Tuesday. By Wednesday, upper level ridge axis will move overhead and stronger 850mb southwest flow will set up, advecting 850mb temperatures of 10 to 15 deg C into the region. Local climatology upper air studies show the 25th-75th percentile with these temperatures yielding surface temperatures in the 67 to 75 degree range. It does look like we should mix up to around the 850 mb level during the afternoon. These temperatures correlate fairly well with the NBM 25th-75th percentile range of 70 to 78

degrees with the current forecast on the lower end of this. We may need to eventually boost these numbers up slightly, but for now will leave with the current NBM numbers. This will get us close to record numbers on Wednesday(see climate section).

Wednesday Night-Thursday: Gulf moisture will be drawn back into the area from the south ahead of low pressure developing in the plains on Wednesday night. The increased moisture and warmer temperatures will develop some instability and global ensembles (mainly the GEFS and ENS) are showing several hundred joules of CAPE Wednesday night into Thursday as this shortwave and surface low/front move through. Will maintain thunderstorm chances(15-30%) embedded within a larger area of showers(20-60%) as this system moves through. Generally going with up to a

quarter inch of QPF with this system.

Thursday night-Friday: Behind the cold front, slightly cooler air will move into the area, with the bulk of the cold air remaining to the north and east of the area. Lows will dip back down into the mid to upper 30s, but this is still slightly above normal for this time of year. Highs on Friday are expected in the mid 50s to around 60. Saturday into the 8 to 14 day outlook: After the brief "cool down", upper ridging will eventually build back into the area and we`ll see temperatures rising back into the upper 60s to low 70s as we head into the later part of the weekend into the following week.

Source: NWS Springfield

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