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RAG Severe Wx 03/05/24 7:00 AM

Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated.

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