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RAG Winter 1/7/2024 5:00 PM

A band of rain will also develop ahead of the system and will move east into the area Monday morning and across the area Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Warm air advection will be occurring across the area Monday morning so the precipitation

will start off as all rain as temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. There will be a little dry air in the mid levels so a brief period of sleet could occur as the precipitation begins but should transitions to rain fairly quickly. Temperatures especially across portions of central Missouri may then cool into the middle 30s Monday afternoon and evening as wet bulbing occurs. As a result some snow may mix in with the rain Monday afternoon and evening before the precipitation begins to taper off Monday evening. Temperatures will be above freezing so little if any accumulations are expected on Monday. Monday evening and Monday night: A dry slot is expected to move over the region with the upper level low and surface low. This could result in a dry period across the area but there could be some periods of drizzle. No snow is expected as cloud ice will be lost. Temperatures Monday night into early Tuesday morning will remain above freezing in the middle 30s, so no freezing drizzle is expected. As the low moves northeast on Tuesday moisture will wrap around the low. Models have continued to shift north with the overall track but there is still a small range in the ensemble model members on the exact track. Just a small shift north or south in

the low track will impact snow amounts across the area. The current track keeps the heaviest snow north of the area. Still, light snow will likely develop further south into a good portions of our area. There is the potential for a meso snow band setting up across the area too. At this time the heaviest snow across the area will likely be along and north of Highway 54. Still a slight shift in the track of exactly where any bands occur could bring snow slight further south. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for locations along and north of Hwy 54 for Tuesday as these areas have the better potential for seeing accumulation snow of 1 to 2" with locally heavier amounts up to

4". Further south could see a dusting to an inch or two but confidence in the higher amounts occurring is lower further south, NWS has held off on an Advisory further south at this time. The snow will end from west to east by the mid evening hours. Gusts northwesterly winds will occur across the area on Tuesday on the back side of the low. Gusts up to 45 mph will likely occur at times. This could cause blowing of snow. Colder temperatures will also spread into the area as temperatures drop

into the 20s Tuesday afternoon/evening then into the teen Tuesday night. It is possible that as these cold temperatures move into the area wet roads freeze Tuesday evening and night. Winds chills will occur in the single digits Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

NWS Blend Model

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