Figured I would start blogging again! Hello and welcome to Jeffs "WeatherTalk".
Cooler weather in store for the next several days, next shot for rain moves in Thursday, accumulations up to 1.5 inches, severe weather will be possible to our south around OKC to Little Rock area.
Looking down the road, our next big severe weather maker appears to be May 17th / 18th, long range models has this setup as a classic severe weather system, happening in the evening into overnight. Rain amounts will be heavy with the 17th system, GFS has max amounts nearing 5 inches for some spots. The only thing I question is like last nights event where the models didn't time the system correctly and the cold front overtook a good portion of the area eliminating the risk, the only model that got close to this was the HRRR but a two hours prior to it happening. So far GFS has been good at getting the severe weather events accurate. We will see next time.
I plan on doing the blog once a week so far and mainly discuss the long range models.